Plus ça change . . . (Nostradamus edition)

1789:

Among all the possible causes for the French Revolution that historians have proposed over the past two centuries, three stand out. First, the financial irresponsibility of Louis XVI severely limited his options when the crisis arrived. Second, the French nobility, blinded by their arrogance, failed utterly to understand that a few short-term accommodations might, in the long-run, preserve their status. Third, a series of droughts and other agricultural disasters pushed the country from a general depression into a disastrous situation in which thousands faced ruin and starvation, while the government failed to take any useful action. Other factors may have played a role, but these three seem sufficient to explain the cataclysmic events of 1789.

2025:

Among all the possible causes for the collapse of the Fifth Republic, three stand out. First, the financial irresponsibility of several successive governments severely limited President Macron’s options when the crisis arrived. Second, the French elite, blinded by their arrogance, failed utterly to understand that substantive change was required. Third, the COVID-19 pandemic combined with the impacts of climate change to prolong a dismal economic situation, while the government failed to take any useful action. Other factors may have played a role, but these three seem sufficient to explain the cataclysmic events of 2025.

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