Updated July 21—now that Biden has announced he won’t run for re-election. Buckle up for a sexist / racist hullabaloo! If the Dems unite behind Harris, they have a chance. Otherwise, it’s Project 2025 time. (See bold-faced bullet point, below.)
- Joe Biden has been the most progressive president in history and has pushed back against corporations, the super-rich, and the Israeli government (not nearly enough to satisfy anyone outraged by the genocide of Palestinians, but plenty enough to piss off the pro-Netanyahu folks (see below). He is also elderly, and a terrible public speaker, thus a) turning off a huge proportion of know-nothing voters who like their celebrities young, cool, and glib; and b) providing ample fodder for a media feeding-frenzy. Yesterday we learned that he has COVID again, which will only add to the frenzy.
- The corporate Dem crowd of billionaires who don’t want regulation or taxation of the rich any more than their right-wing MAGA billionaire brethren are trying to get rid of both Biden and Harris.
- The AIPAC pro-Israel nuts who will do anything to put a pro-Bibi president in the White House are for Trump.
- The low-information “moderates” and “independents” who will determine the outcome of the election do not like or trust Kamala Harris because she is a) a woman, and b) non-white.
- The black women voters who were essential to Biden’s razor-thin wins in swing states in 2020 will not turn out for the Democratic candidate if Harris is dumped.
- If Biden and Harris are dumped, the candidate who emerges just weeks before the election will have no campaign organization on the ground and no money. The Democratic billionaires will throw some money, but will not be able to repair the lack of campaign organization that takes at least a year to build. Plus the party will be divided by factions bitterly blaming each other for the debacle.
- If Biden steps down and Harris becomes the presidential nominee, she will have to a) get the corporate Dems and party power brokers on her side, b) somehow retain the support of union members who have been strongly pro-Biden, and c) overcome the anti-woman, anti-Black prejudice among crucial “swing” voters.
- Season all of this with mass-media click-bait sensationalism (Trump is great for business if you are in corporate media) and hysterical social media disinformation. Let simmer for a few weeks, and voila!—we’re all in the soup.